Modesto, CA metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Modesto, CA housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 12.7% decrease in house prices over the next twelve months. The metro market ranks 274 among 402 US metro housing markets.
Housing Market Vitality
Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.
Modesto, CA local economy is specialized in Construction, Fncl activities, and Other svcs. Mining, Information, and Pro Bus svcs industry sectors are less important to the local economy compared to the national economy.
Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.
Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Modesto, CA residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Modesto, CA population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.
A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.