Understanding house price changes

So, what’s going on with house prices?

As of March 11, 2023, as the data trickles in, we know the following:

  • For February 2023, Realtor.com reported an annual 7.8% increase in the median price of homes for sale.
  • For January 2023, Zillow’s US Home Value Index was up 8.7%, while the Census Bureau reported a -0.7% decline in the median sales price of new houses. Freddie Mac’s House Price Index was in the middle, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase.
  • For December 2022, the US Case-Shiller index was up 5.8%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported two numbers — an 11.8% increase based on the All Transactions HPI and a 6.6% increase based on the Purchase Only HPI.
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Want to know where the housing market is headed? Poll real estate agents.

Expert commentary about the housing market runs the gamut–crash, correction, drop, worsening decline, unlikely to crash, and don’t worry.

For the rest of us, as we wade through the tail end of the pandemic, witness gravity-defying labor markets, experience inflation rates not seen in four decades, and see unprecedented interest rate hikes, some clarity about the housing market would be helpful.

Perhaps, even about our local market?

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HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS® – July 2022

Kentucky Housing Market Is Shifting
Home sellers cut prices as buyers cancel contracts and adjust to the new economic environment.

Seventy-three percent of Kentucky REALTORS® expect sellers to drop their asking price, while eighty-nine percent expect houses to stay on the market for longer, according to the July 2022 edition of the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®.

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HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS® – June 2022

Kentucky Housing Market Starts Cooling Off
Higher mortgage rates discourage buyers as sellers rush to beat the slowdown.

Sixty-nine percent of Kentucky REALTORS® expect sellers to drop their asking price, while eighty-five percent expect houses to stay on the market for longer, according to the June 2022 edition of the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®.

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HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS® – May 2022

Kentucky Housing Market At Tipping Point
Economic concerns and rising rates weigh on buyers.

Thirty-eight percent of Kentucky REALTORS® expect house prices to fall, while seventy-seven percent expect houses to stay on the market for longer, according to the May 2022 edition of the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®.

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HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS® – April 2022

Kentucky Housing Market Cools Off
Relief for buyers as sellers reduce prices and inventory inches up

Forty-three percent of Kentucky REALTORS® expect more sellers to reduce their asking price, while fifty-eight percent expect a house to stay on the market for longer, according to the April 2022 edition of the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®.

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Investors with cash edging out Kentucky home buyers

Hopeful homeowners who are already struggling with low inventory and higher prices must now confront an additional challenge: investors.

Real estate professionals are noting investor interest in homebuying has been on an upward trend for months. According to the numbers tracked by the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®, 31% of the respondents in the January survey said investors had outbid their individual buyers. By the February survey, 42% of the respondents reported the occurrence. By March, responses indicated an 18-point jump since the beginning of the year, with 49% of the respondents saying that investors had squeezed out individual buyers.

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