California Housing Market Vitality
California metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 23.6% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks tenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.
Housing Market Vitality
Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.
California Metro Housing Markets
California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.
|METRO AREA||SITUATION||OUTLOOK||US METRO RANK (/402)|
|Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA||Underperforming||Positive||125|
|El Centro, CA||Underperforming||Negative||300|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA||Underperforming||Neutral||116|
|Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA||Underperforming||Negative||206|
|Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA||Outperforming||Positive||53|
|San Diego-Carlsbad, CA||Outperforming||Positive||55|
|San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA||Underperforming||Positive||194|
|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA||Underperforming||Positive||168|
|San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA||Tracking||Positive||126|
|San Rafael, CA||Underperforming||Negative||365|
|Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA||Underperforming||Negative||297|
|Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA||Outperforming||Positive||90|
|Santa Rosa, CA||Underperforming||Negative||315|
|Yuba City, CA||Outperforming||Negative||141|
California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.
Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.
Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.
A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.