California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

ten

California metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 23.6% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks tenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Positive125
Bakersfield, CA Outperforming Positive77
Chico, CA Underperforming Negative362
El Centro, CA Underperforming Negative300
Fresno, CA Outperforming Positive81
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Outperforming Negative157
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Neutral116
Madera, CA Outperforming Negative116
Merced, CA Outperforming Negative128
Modesto, CA Outperforming Negative146
Napa, CA Underperforming Negative324
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Negative239
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Negative206
Redding, CA Underperforming Negative285
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Positive53
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Outperforming Negative140
Salinas, CA Tracking Negative180
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Outperforming Positive55
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Positive194
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Positive168
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Tracking Positive126
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Negative365
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Negative297
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Outperforming Positive90
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Negative315
Stockton-Lodi, CA Outperforming Negative129
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Tracking Negative205
Visalia-Porterville, CA Outperforming Positive85
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Negative141

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated November 01, 2022 with data through September 2022