California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank


California metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 22.5% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks fourteenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Positive206
Bakersfield, CA Underperforming Positive83
Chico, CA Underperforming Positive178
El Centro, CA Underperforming Positive90
Fresno, CA Underperforming Positive70
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Underperforming Positive71
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Positive134
Madera, CA Outperforming Positive37
Merced, CA Underperforming Positive88
Modesto, CA Outperforming Positive20
Napa, CA Underperforming Positive183
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Positive187
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Positive116
Redding, CA Underperforming Positive81
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Positive25
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Outperforming Positive23
Salinas, CA Underperforming Positive111
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Underperforming Positive89
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Negative401
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Negative390
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Underperforming Positive160
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Negative398
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Positive247
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Underperforming Positive142
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Positive236
Stockton-Lodi, CA Underperforming Positive48
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Underperforming Positive65
Visalia-Porterville, CA Underperforming Positive130
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Positive28

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.


Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated December 30, 2021 with data through November 2021