California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty

California metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 14.9% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks thirtieth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Negative288
Bakersfield, CA Outperforming Negative98
Chico, CA Underperforming Negative266
El Centro, CA Underperforming Negative157
Fresno, CA Tracking Negative139
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Outperforming Negative125
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Negative238
Madera, CA Outperforming Negative105
Merced, CA Underperforming Positive79
Modesto, CA Outperforming Positive18
Napa, CA Underperforming Negative312
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Negative221
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Negative224
Redding, CA Tracking Negative142
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Positive23
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Outperforming Positive20
Salinas, CA Underperforming Negative184
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Underperforming Negative150
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Negative402
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Negative388
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Underperforming Negative303
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Negative396
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Negative350
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Underperforming Negative267
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Negative342
Stockton-Lodi, CA Underperforming Positive55
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Underperforming Neutral153
Visalia-Porterville, CA Underperforming Negative185
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Negative40

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated September 08, 2021 with data through July 2021