California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

nineteen

California metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 22.2% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks nineteenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Positive154
Bakersfield, CA Outperforming Positive86
Chico, CA Underperforming Negative299
El Centro, CA Tracking Negative168
Fresno, CA Outperforming Positive77
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Outperforming Negative126
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Neutral172
Madera, CA Outperforming Positive82
Merced, CA Outperforming Neutral83
Modesto, CA Outperforming Negative117
Napa, CA Underperforming Negative223
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Negative196
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Negative179
Redding, CA Outperforming Negative157
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Positive32
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Outperforming Neutral90
Salinas, CA Outperforming Negative166
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Outperforming Positive66
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Negative394
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Negative350
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Underperforming Negative182
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Negative363
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Negative215
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Tracking Positive95
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Negative348
Stockton-Lodi, CA Outperforming Positive52
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Outperforming Negative136
Visalia-Porterville, CA Outperforming Negative131
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Positive73

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated July 02, 2022 with data through May 2022