Kentucky Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

twenty-eight

Kentucky metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Kentucky’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 12.4% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the nine metro housing markets which comprise it, Kentucky’s housing market ranks twenty-eighth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Market Pulse

Kentucky housing market continues to cool down. Buyers willing to wait as sellers adjust pricing.  More »

Sales TrackerJuly 202112-month change
Closed Sales Count5,393-9%
Distressed Sales Count13-32%
Median Sales Price$225K+13%
Months of Inventory2.2-9%
Pending Sales Count7,999-7%
New listings hitting the market increased for the fifth consecutive month and active listings are also trending upward. These indicators signal that the recent price surge will soon peak as more options will become available to consumers. Those hesitant to list their homes for fear of not finding a new property to move into may also be spurred into listing by the increasing inventory, thereby boosting the listing count further. Closed sales in July reached 5,393. That figure is down slightly (at 7%) from 5,943 in July 2020. The year-to-date closings figure climbed to 32,485. This is a 9% increase from July of 2020 when that number reached 29,811.

Kentucky Metro Housing Markets

Kentucky is comprised of nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 58% of the state’s population. The Bluegrass State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Bowling Green, KYUnderperformingNegative327
Cincinnati, OH-KY-INTrackingNegative168
Clarksville, TN-KYOutperformingNegative102
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KYUnderperformingNegative213
Evansville, IN-KYUnderperformingNegative245
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OHUnderperformingNegative339
Lexington-Fayette, KYUnderperformingNegative260
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-INUnderperformingNegative182
Owensboro, KYUnderperformingNegative335

Industry Specialization

Kentucky’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing and Other svcs. Mining, Information, and Pro Bus svcs industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Kentucky residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Kentucky’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated September 08, 2021 with data through July 2021