North Carolina Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty-five

North Carolina metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, North Carolina’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 14.8% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the seventeen metro housing markets which comprise it, North Carolina’s housing market ranks thirty-fifth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

North Carolina Metro Housing Markets

North Carolina is comprised of seventeen metro housing markets that account for nearly 78% of the state’s population. The Tar Heel State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Asheville, NC Underperforming Positive218
Burlington, NC Underperforming Positive110
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Underperforming Neutral188
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Underperforming Negative322
Fayetteville, NC Underperforming Negative285
Goldsboro, NC Underperforming Neutral270
Greensboro-High Point, NC Underperforming Negative297
Greenville, NC Underperforming Positive190
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Underperforming Negative279
Jacksonville, NC Underperforming Positive166
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Underperforming Negative304
New Bern, NC Outperforming Negative85
Raleigh, NC Underperforming Negative295
Rocky Mount, NC Underperforming Positive217
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Underperforming Positive133
Wilmington, NC Underperforming Positive112
Winston-Salem, NC Underperforming Negative290

Industry Specialization

North Carolina’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing, Construction, and Other svcs. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst North Carolina residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. North Carolina’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated December 30, 2021 with data through November 2021