Texas Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty-four

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Texas’ housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 13.1% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-six metro housing markets which comprise it, Texas’ housing market ranks thirty-fourth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty-six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The Lone Star State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Underperforming Negative270
Amarillo, TX Underperforming Negative282
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperforming Negative37
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Underperforming Negative332
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Underperforming Negative348
College Station-Bryan, TX Underperforming Negative318
Corpus Christi, TX Underperforming Negative242
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Underperforming Positive95
El Paso, TX Underperforming Negative248
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Underperforming Negative177
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Underperforming Negative299
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperforming Negative57
Laredo, TX Underperforming Negative400
Longview, TX Underperforming Negative277
Lubbock, TX Underperforming Negative287
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Underperforming Negative378
Midland, TX Underperforming Negative401
Odessa, TX Underperforming Negative398
San Angelo, TX Underperforming Negative343
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Underperforming Negative254
Sherman-Denison, TX Underperforming Negative227
Texarkana, TX-AR Underperforming Negative369
Tyler, TX Underperforming Negative269
Victoria, TX Underperforming Negative362
Waco, TX Outperforming Negative106
Wichita Falls, TX Underperforming Negative193

Industry Specialization

Texas’ state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Texas residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’ population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated September 08, 2021 with data through July 2021