Texas Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty-eight

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Texas’ housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 15.1% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-six metro housing markets which comprise it, Texas’ housing market ranks thirty-eighth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty-six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The Lone Star State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Underperforming Positive193
Amarillo, TX Underperforming Positive201
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperforming Positive7
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Underperforming Negative333
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Underperforming Negative360
College Station-Bryan, TX Underperforming Negative379
Corpus Christi, TX Underperforming Positive191
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Underperforming Negative300
El Paso, TX Underperforming Neutral289
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Underperforming Negative306
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Underperforming Negative347
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperforming Positive33
Laredo, TX Underperforming Positive275
Longview, TX Underperforming Negative315
Lubbock, TX Underperforming Neutral298
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Underperforming Negative338
Midland, TX Underperforming Negative399
Odessa, TX Underperforming Negative400
San Angelo, TX Underperforming Positive266
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Underperforming Positive140
Sherman-Denison, TX Underperforming Positive106
Texarkana, TX-AR Underperforming Negative345
Tyler, TX Underperforming Positive224
Victoria, TX Underperforming Neutral271
Waco, TX Underperforming Positive182
Wichita Falls, TX Underperforming Positive180

Industry Specialization

Texas’ state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Texas residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’ population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated December 30, 2021 with data through November 2021