California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

eighteen

California metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 21.6% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks eighteenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Positive169
Bakersfield, CA Outperforming Negative105
Chico, CA Underperforming Negative280
El Centro, CA Outperforming Negative161
Fresno, CA Outperforming Positive48
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Outperforming Neutral87
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Neutral185
Madera, CA Outperforming Negative122
Merced, CA Outperforming Positive61
Modesto, CA Outperforming Neutral93
Napa, CA Underperforming Negative194
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Positive163
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Neutral179
Redding, CA Outperforming Negative130
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Positive25
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Outperforming Positive65
Salinas, CA Outperforming Negative154
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Outperforming Positive59
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Negative397
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Negative367
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Underperforming Negative198
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Negative355
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Negative199
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Tracking Positive118
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Negative338
Stockton-Lodi, CA Outperforming Positive27
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Outperforming Negative125
Visalia-Porterville, CA Outperforming Negative112
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Positive70

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated May 10, 2022 with data through March 2022