California Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

twenty-nine

California metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, California’s housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 0.1% decrease in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty-nine metro housing markets which comprise it, California’s housing market ranks twenty-ninth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

California Metro Housing Markets

California is comprised of twenty-nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 98% of the state’s population. The Golden State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREASITUATIONOUTLOOKUS METRO RANK (/402)
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA Underperforming Negative215
Bakersfield, CA Outperforming Negative141
Chico, CA Underperforming Negative397
El Centro, CA Underperforming Positive186
Fresno, CA Outperforming Negative146
Hanford-Corcoran, CA Tracking Negative281
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Underperforming Negative274
Madera, CA Outperforming Positive93
Merced, CA Outperforming Negative192
Modesto, CA Tracking Negative272
Napa, CA Underperforming Negative323
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley, CA Underperforming Negative343
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA Underperforming Negative300
Redding, CA Underperforming Negative365
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Outperforming Negative126
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, CA Tracking Negative267
Salinas, CA Underperforming Negative279
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Outperforming Negative144
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA Underperforming Negative386
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Underperforming Negative330
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA Tracking Negative275
San Rafael, CA Underperforming Positive193
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Underperforming Negative344
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA Outperforming Negative201
Santa Rosa, CA Underperforming Negative369
Stockton-Lodi, CA Outperforming Negative243
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA Underperforming Negative372
Visalia-Porterville, CA Outperforming Negative145
Yuba City, CA Outperforming Negative262

Industry Specialization

California’s state economy is specialized in Information, Pro Bus svcs, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst California residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. California’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated December 30, 2022 with data through October 2022