Kentucky Housing Market Vitality
Kentucky metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Kentucky’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 16.5% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the nine metro housing markets which comprise it, Kentucky’s housing market ranks twenty-eighth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.
Housing Market Vitality
Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.
|Sales Tracker||March 2022||12-month change|
|Closed Sales Count||4,521||-2.1%|
|Distressed Sales Count||14||+40%|
|Median Sales Price||$225K||+12.8%|
|Months of Inventory||1.2||-51%|
Sales volume broke records once again in 2021 totaling $14.3 billion. This is almost 16% over the 2020 year-to-date volume of $12.4 billion. This figure has essentially doubled over the past 5 years having reached $7.9 billion in 2016.
Kentucky Metro Housing Markets
Kentucky is comprised of nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 58% of the state’s population. The Bluegrass State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.
|METRO AREA||SITUATION||OUTLOOK||US METRO RANK (/402)|
|Bowling Green, KY||Underperforming||Neutral||170|
|Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY||Tracking||Negative||183|
|Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN||Underperforming||Negative||283|
Kentucky’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing and Other svcs. Mining, Information, and Pro Bus svcs industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.
Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.
Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Kentucky residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Kentucky’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.
A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.