HousingIQ: August 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Sharp increase in number of markets with forecasted price declines.
Over a quarter of markets forecasted to outperform.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.4 point to end August 2019 at 105.6. The 0.3 point three-month decrease and 0.3 point year-over-year decrease indicate a sustained softening in house price trends. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact in 90% of the 402 metro housing markets tracked by HousingIQ. August 2019 ended with house price changes in over 100 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, the number of markets with forecasted price decreases increased sharply to over 10%.

August 2019 closed 0.4 point lower. The 0.3 point 12-month decrease, 0.3 point 3-month decrease, and 0.1 point m-o-m decrease in the 3-month moving average point to a sustained softening in house price trends.

The number of metro markets outperforming the national market decreased. Currently, over 100 markets are forecasted to outperform.

There was a sharp increase in the number of metro markets forecasted to suffer price deterioration.

Forecasted performance

107 metro markets are forecasted to outperform the national market with Florida and Oregon accounting for seven of the top ten. 255 markets are forecasted to underperform the national market.

Trailing 12-month performance

Conditions improved in 193 metro markets with Texas accounting for five of the top ten performers. Conditions deteriorated in 209 metro markets with California and Florida contributing six of the ten worst performers.

Noteworthy markets

47 metro markets stand out for their consistent strong performance with Oregon and Florida contributing the top 5. 120 metro markets have been consistent poor performers.