HousingIQ: Q3 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Thirty-five metro markets forecasted to deteriorate.
Twelve states forecasted to outperform national market.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed Q3 2019 at 105.9 suggesting economic conditions support 5.9% annual house price gains. The 0.15 point year-over-year decrease wiped out all improvements since last spring. At the state level, twelve state housing markets are stronger than the overall US housing market. At the metro level, Q3 2019 ended with house price changes in 114 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, in thirty-five metro markets house prices are forecasted to decline.

Q3 2019 closed 0.15 point lower than Q2 2019. A similar 0.15 point 12-month decrease indicates a sustained softening in house price trends.

The number of metro markets stronger than the national housing market increased to 114 markets in Q3 2019.

In Q3 2019, the number of metro markets where house prices are forecasted to decrease dropped to nearly 9%.

Forecasted performance

In twelve states, the housing market is stronger than the overall US housing market. Maine is the only state where house prices are forecasted to decline over the next twelve months.

114 metro markets are forecasted to outperform the national market with Oregon, Washington, and California accounting for six of the top ten metros. 240 markets are forecasted to underperform the national market.

Trailing 12-month performance

Conditions improved in 204 metro markets with Texas and West Virginia accounting for five of the top ten performers. Conditions deteriorated in 198 metro markets with California and Florida contributing seven of the ten worst performers.

Noteworthy markets

52 metro markets stand out for their consistent strong performance with Oregon and Florida contributing four markets. 94 metro markets have been consistent poor performers.